IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FAILS TO RESOLVE IT COULD TRIGGER A NUCLEAR WAR

                             
The league of nation is again failing to understand the chemistry of dispute in South East Asia. It is the apathy of the west that disputes like Kashmir, Palestine, Iraq and Afghanistan have no end in sight. From the womb of the Kashmir dispute since India and Pakistan lock horns over the Himalayan water resources as the two Agrarian are hit hard by food and energy shortages is likely to be born a child of trouble.
 
For two nuclear powers who share a 1000 years of bitter history and nurse deep rooted grudge; This water dispute based on theft of water by India from three rivers allocated to Pakistan by World Bank brokered (Indus Water Treaty) could spell disaster for the region. Theft of waters from Chenab, Jhelum, Indus and its tributaries from the Indian-administered part of disputed state of Jammu and Kashmir has emerged as a recent bilateral flash point.
 
At a time of global financial crises and food scarcity and when its own rivers are drying up India has heated up the cheating bullying game. India took total control of 3 rivers Ravi, Sutlej and Bias; and Pakistan was made to give up on these 3 rivers in absolute term as against the rights of lower riparian.
 
Now India has announced ambitious plans to build countless water reservoirs on those Kashmir rivers that were allocated to Pakistan in 1960 by a world bank mediated Indus Water Treaty. This India like Israel cannot do with impunity without a pat from the West which takes India as a blue eyed boy to counter and contain China. In accordance with the treaty sponsored by UK, Germany, Australia, New Zeeland, and Canada; India and Pakistan were given control of three rivers each, originating from Jammu and Kashmir not a word has come from these world power countries cautioning the violator of any kind of UN sanctions which are imposed against helpless Muslim countries even on proven false and cooked up dossiers. The treaty itself is simple and straight forward attempt to let both adversaries share the available water resources by allotting the eastern rivers to India and Western rivers to Pakistan. However, nothing between India and Pakistan is straight forward and simple. The west has always helped India in giving everything a twist from the partition of India to the partition of river waters. This is the sole source of encouragement for Indian establishment to violate every logic of morality and every principal of international law and norm. The Indian establishment in league with HINDUTVA forces is devoid of every principal of morality and political ethics.
 
India’s construction of a 450-megawatt hydel project on Chenab land river has devastated 4500 farms and thousands upon thousands of arable, irrigated is fast moving into a Barren swath; flanked by tight security, Indian Prime Minister visited Jammu and Kashmir in October to launch the start of controversial projects.
 
The 470-ft high, 317 meter wide dam, with a storage capacity of 15 billion cusecs of water, has significantly reduced water flow to agriculture dependent Pakistan. The team of Pakistan Water Commissioner headed by Mr Jamal Ali shah is inefficient, lacks depth and analysis to match the smart hard-working Indian team. Pakistan lost out on Baglihar dam due to its incompetent legal team which was a child of cronyism as compared to brilliant Indian legal eagles. India as usual is neither willing to compensate Pakistani’s massive water losses nor consider bringing any change to the physical structure of the dam.
 
Being a lower riparian Pakistan is hit hard with water shortage with enormous loss in energy sector and agriculture related business in addition to imminent food inflation. Pakistan would be paying a very high price for India “not to trade important regional objectives for short term domestic goals.”
 
India consistently obstructing the Chenab’s flow to Pakistan. Pakistan has only received 19,351 cusecs on 9 October and 10,739 cusecs on 11 October from Chenab river when It should be receiving a minimum of 55,000 cusecs. Pakistan is expected to bear a total loss of 321,000 MAF of water, bringing some 405 canals and 125 distributaries to dead level and effecting 13 million acres of agricultural land on which rice, wheat , sugarcane and fodder crops are grown. Where is UNO and justice of the developed world.
 
The Indian intransigence on Chenab is being seen as a threat to Pakistan’s life line, and if India doesn’t relent things could take an ugly turn. The Kashmir freedom fighters might have their agenda for their freedom struggle to move to the next phase and perhaps the decisive phase.
 
Pakistan has made sacrifice for peace in the region, it has been fighting for the West as a front line state first against USSR and now against terror and what a nice way to pay it back.
 
In the APC(All parties conference)  held at Punjab assembly and presided over by senior minister Raja Riaz, Brig. Abbas and my self were PTI delegates.
 
“A good decision by PPP government to call APC on water. Although late but after a long last a fairly good step. The focus of the APC was on water theft by India through a strategy of indirect approach which could transform Pakistan into barren desert.
 
Secondly interprovincial water mismanagement leading to hostility. PTI was represented by Brigadier (Retd) Abbas Junjua and Barrister Mansoor Sarwar. The conference applauded and approved Barrister Mansoor’s view that these are the days of hype; the blight has to be portrayed in an appropriate and logical manner compatible with international standards. Diplomacy is no more an art of achieving goals through intellectual discourse as Bismarck had envisioned, now international clout, economic viability and internal alliance in the community of a country add credence to its assertiveness. Name of the game is world opinion; western governments can only be persuaded through their domestic opinion and not by any other means. Government should start changing western public opinion, diplomats, intellectuals and media should make the headway.
 
To start a  “National Water Day” to be observed in Pakistan and on that day human chain from Gowadar to Chittral be formed to portray to the world the water theft by India and its repercussions on Pakistan and its people. At home an adequate water management and water awareness should be given top priorities and the 4 provinces should send their expert to cobble an agreement based on facts and impending water realities on the ground. Both the suggestions were accepted and approved by APC.”
 
It is about time that Pakistan shows its solidarity in order to confront India over the water dispute, courage, wisdom and availing all the diplomatic channels before a rethink.
 
Barrister Mansur Sarwar is Member CEC of Pakistan Tehreek Insaf
 

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