Will India talk to Pakistan and have a meaningful dialogue to resolve long-standing disputes between the two countries? The question is vital for the peaceful co-existence of nuclear armed neighbors and for the future strategic geo-political posturing that involves American-Chinese relations. The new world global order is going to be shaped in the political landscape of South Asia with India and Pakistan as major players.

Another factor that has to be figured in the prevailing situation is American designs: The American (and its allies’) long-term strategic plans are to demonize, destabilize, de-nuclearize, reshape (from within) Pakistan’s territorial existence and redraw its political map with Indian collaboration in order to continue its global-political-military hegemony.

India, at the behest of US-Western powers is being strategically prepared as a leading actor to counter growing Chinese political and economic influence in the region as well as globally. Consequently, in today’s world, Pakistan is being challenged with a long diplomatic-political confrontation with India and, in fact, will have to struggle for its survival. Interestingly, the current odds against Pakistan also present an opportunity for this nation to emerge as a leading player in a global-political renaissance to alter the “status quo” in world affairs and reshape it. The question is: Will Pakistani foreign policy managers grab the opportunity? Let us examine the problematics and the possibilities!

India-phobes in Pakistan will tell you that the Indians would undo Pakistan if they could, at any time, at the very first opportunity, because that is what the fundamentalist Hindu national dream and fantasy is. Political romantics, on both sides of the divide, visualize a happy marriage and a sanguine relationship of peaceful co-existence of the two nations, if not at this precise moment in history then in the not too distant future. Realist thinkers will argue that India will do whatever is best in its national “self interests.” Indeed, all these three perspectives are flawed because they are the products of political infatuation and gullibility of  contagious mindsets extremely peculiar in their respective birth and conceptual fertilization. These ideas offer weak explanations because of their inherent and inner core “genetic” intellectual flaws.

Political visionaries will have yet quite another view on future Pak-India relations. They may see the coming of a golden age of cooperation between the two nations – or might formulate a “doomsday” scenario – it would depend on with whom you are talking.

But the real problematics of Indo-Pak relations lie with the “Realist school” proponents advocating the national “self interests” mantra of the Indian political gurus and foreign policy ‘pundits.’ India, a nation that once took pride in the spiritual, philosophical and humanitarian world view of international diplomacy is now suddenly besieged with a conceptual doctrine of a “global power” status and is totally wedded to the US-West’s orchestrated precept of promoting “national self interests” at all costs, whatever it takes.

Hence, to evaluate India’s present and future diplomatic-political-military discourse vis-à-vis Pakistan, we will have to carefully watch the Indian leadership’s “political conduct” rather than rely on its ideological affirmations of the past or the usual rhetorical lexicon loaded with messages of peace and brotherhood which is essentially intended for mass public consumption, media hypes and global propaganda aimed at outward appearance rather than at the actual reflection of its policy fundamentals.

 It is about time that we realize that deceit, hypocrisy, lying and blatant political manipulations have become an intrinsic part of international diplomacy and in the conduct of global politics by the most powerful nations (for example, how else can we explain the Iraq/Afghanistan wars and the Gaza holocaust, etc, etc, in recent times). In an absolute sense, we have come to live in Machiavellian contextual concepts of international affairs.  Contemporary India, in its push for world power status, is not going to be an exception to what has become a normal ‘modus operandi’ in geo-political discourse.

Let us suppose, for the sake of an argument, that the recent “Puna Blast” in India was state- organized terrorism to derail talks with Pakistan. It might have also been the work of political forces in India that oppose normalization of relations with Pakistan. Notwithstanding these possibilities and beyond them, Indian political conduct is alarming: India is in close partnership and alliance with the major arms exporter of the world: In 2008, the US sold weapons to the tune of $55.2 billion – 68.4% of the total world arms trade in that year. Boeing and Lockheed Martin (both American companies) are vying to equip India’s air force with new fighter planes in deals that Boeing estimates may reach $11 billion. One does not have to be a philosopher or a political genius to understand the links between arm sales, military conflicts and the restructuring of the global balance of power. US Lockheed Martin is not going to sell India F-22 Raptor jet fighters to place them in Indian air force generals’ backyards for decoration purposes – that much is obvious!

The writing is on the wall: India is in close co-operation with the CIA- Mossad for its future military-strategic plans. If Pakistani political managers have not read Graham Greene’s

The Quiet American (based on a true person) or watched the film starring British actor Michael Caine, then they must read the book or watch the movie. It will provide them with the insight in how terrorism, organized violence, and political dissent are arranged in the destabilization process of a country by external actors. A point in reference here is the US-Indian role in the possible political upheaval in Balochistan in which both the US and India are now openly engaged (consider the US-sponsored conference in Thailand on Balochistan). Pakistan is in for a very rude awakening!

India will not talk seriously; neither will it have a meaningful dialogue to resolve core issues with Pakistan. The question is: why should it? Time is on India’s side. Contemporary geo-political ground realities favor Indian strategic plans and it is backed by the world’s two most lethal forces: the CIA and Mossad.  Politically it has the US-West’s patronage!  Right or wrong, India is feeling as if it were on Cloud 9 in the political ascendency to a world power status.

The onus is on Pakistan.  To make India talk meaningfully, Pakistan will have to reinvent itself. It will have to gain strength from within. It will have to resolve its internal regional issues and conflicts politically, and fast. It will have to stop the so called “terrorism war” against its own people immediately. It will have to distance itself from the US-West dictates domestically as well as in its external affairs. It will have to restructure an independent foreign policy. It will have to choose a China-Russia-centric doctrine in its external affairs and devote itself to a regional geo-political vision of the future. It will have to disassociate itself from the global political objectives of the US and its Western allies. In all, Pakistan is facing an uphill task of restructuring its entire politics and the enormity of its problematics is alarming – that much should be obvious to everyone!

Will Pakistan be able to take up its present challenges, survive with dignity and ensure its existence?

In my humble opinion, not until a revolutionary people-centric nationalist leadership emerges in Pakistan with a visionary renaissance of the kind that breaks with the political past, all of its practices and reinvents a new present!

The fact of the matter is that the contemporary political dispensation and leadership has failed us. It is not possible for the incumbent foreign policy managers to engage India in any meaningful manner. Unfortunately, this is the ground reality!

For the time being, Pakistan should make it clear to the world community that India is its number one adversary! And then work on making peaceful co-existence possible!

But that will require efficient neoteric and visionary foreign policy management!

Will Pakistan be able to manage it?  That is the test which Pakistan must face.  It is a survival battle for Pakistan!

The writer is an academic, political analyst and conflict-resolution expert. Besides other publications, he is a regular contributor to Opinion Maker.