Pakistan Economy: CPI Clocks In At 3.94% Y/Y ‐ Mar’16 – By HMFS Research

Pakistan Economy: The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) has released the official inflation statistics for the month of Mar’16 which reflect a CPI reading of 3.94% Y/Y. On a M/M basis a marginal uptick of 0.15% was recorded. Inflation reading on a YTD basis continued its slow upward march settling in at 2.64% Y/Y. During the month of Mar’16, NFNE as a part of core infla‐ tion posted an increase of 4.70% Y/Y, while Trimmed Core witnessed a jump of 3.80% Y/Y. Inflation for the month of Mar’16 was driven by steep increase in prices of Chicken (↑13.92% M/M), Fresh Fruits (↑8.31% M/M) and Fresh Vegetables (↑6.73% M/M), while Transportation recorded a decline of 7.30% M/M.

Food Prices Continue To Inflate CPI

Food and Non‐Alcoholic Beverage segment witnessed an uptick of 2.45% Y/Y contributing a hefty 84bps to the headline inflation. Non Perishable food items recorded an increase of 2.59% Y/Y, while Perishable food items witnessed a jump of 1.51% Y/Y. The largest contributor towards CPI (Y/Y basis) amongst food items came from Pulses (↑53.99%) and Onions (↑43.44%);

On a Y/Y basis Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco posted an increase of 27.05% largely driven by a surge in prices for cigarettes that marked a jump of 27.72% Y/Y

The housing & utilities witnessed an increment of 5.08% Y/Y, fueled by steep Gas prices (↑9.92% Y/Y), Construction Wages (↑7.87% Y/Y) and House Rents (↑5.46% Y/Y);

Education underwent a sizeable increase of 9.61% Y/Y, contributing an increase of 38bps to the overall CPI;

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By: Habib Metropolitan Financial Services Limited

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Economic Update 04-Apr-16

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