America fears that Osama bin Laden, admitted by Secretary of State Gates to have been unheard from for many years, theoretically based in FATA region of Pakistan, is contemplating another 9/11 like attack. India is also thinking on same lines. It fears another 26/11 like attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) singly or aided by Al-Qaeda using Pakistan soil.
Israel harbour fears that Pakistan will supply nuclear weapons or technology to its neighbours. The UK feels that most acts of terror in Britain emanate from Pakistan. Their fears are based entirely on conjectures and flights of imagination with ulterior motives against Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of whose former residents now live in the UK as many of the most productive members of their society.
Robert Gates has now admitted that US intelligence agencies are clueless about whereabouts of Osama. Threat of Al-Qaeda and LeT allegedly based in Pakistan are being used as sticks to keep Pakistan under pressure and to force it to do more. Much of the "more" asked of Pakistan is to respond to instability caused by the incompetence and poor planning of military operations in Afghanistan.
The world is also being conditioned about the possibility of perceived attacks so that when the drama is finally enacted at an opportune time, the world accepts version spread by the corporate controlled western press and holds Pakistan responsible.
These nations have already made several contingency plans how to play up another fabricated show which should appear convincing and free of glaring loopholes of 9/11 and 26/11.
George W Bush and now Obama and his team have sounded on several occasions that 9/11 was planned and executed by Al-Qaeda from Pak-Afghan border region. In order to maintain this belief, considerable evidence of 9/11 funding and planning by others has been systematically, not only ignored but suppressed.
Despite recent admissions by General McChrystal that less than 100 Al Qaeda fighters are in Afghanistan, it is in anticipation to this self-perceived threat that 30,000 additional US troops are being rushed to Afghanistan to prevent recurrence of 9/11.
With no end to US wool-gathering and fits of paranoia, Afghan Shura (councils) and Mullah Omar have been placed at Quetta again on assumptions and without sharing intelligence. All of this is done to try to create a great global conspiracy where none exists.
This has also been done to cover up US-UK failed operation in Helmand and implying that insurgency in Afghanistan is being supported and directed from Quetta, and that Pakistan is party to it, despite her highly effective military operations along the Afghan border.
It is under this threat perception that Pakistan figures out prominently in newly drafted Afghan policy and US desire to step into FATA and to subject Quetta to drone attacks. Hence, troop surge is not only meant to roll back rising power of Afghan Taliban but also to be prepared to implement its contingency plans against Pakistan. These include selective forays into FATA in form of hot pursuit operations, physical intervention in FATA. We are still hearing outlandish suggestions that the US is planning to take over Pakistan’s nuclear assets under the plea of making them safe from falling into wrong hands.
Aggressive posturing will be done to tie down part of our forces along western border in case of Indo-Pakistan conflict green-signalled by Washington. The US has succeeded in making Pakistan pullout over two divisions from eastern border with India to its western frontier with Afghanistan to fight the militants. Breaking all records of hypocrisy and deceit, the US is consistently pushing Pakistan to pullout more troops reassuring it that India pose no threat. It is ignoring non-cooperative and haughty attitude of India. War with India, a nuclear war, is a reality Pakistan lives with every day. Few in the west are familiar with the real issues at hand or the machinations that Pakistan is subjected to.
In the aftermath of 26/11, India has adopted an aggressive posture. It has indicated its intention of reacting fiercely in case of any terrorist attack on India, an attack that can be orchestrated from within in the manner millions of Americans believe was done on 9/11.
Indian Army chief Gen Kapoor has hurled several threatening statements including possibility of limited nuclear war without giving any reason as to why India would wage a war without any provocation from Pakistan. Speaking the same language, Robert Gates has indicated possibility of Indo-Pak war in case of terrorist attack on India. He stated that Al-Qaeda was helping LeT in this regard to provoke a conflict.
Is this the same Al Qaeda that Sibel Edmonds, in her testimony in the US, said was working with the CIA prior to 9/11?
As regards terrorism, Pakistan is worst affected and hardly a day passes without an act of terror resulting in heavy casualties of civilians. Pak Army is fighting the terrorists with full vigour and achieving positive results. Pakistan has also taken concrete steps to meet unjust demands of India and has put alleged accused of Mumbai attacks on trial. No competent investigation of these attacks, attacks Pakistan takes very seriously, has been made.
Al-Qaeda-Afghan Taliban and LeT have become common enemies of India and USA and the duo want Pakistan to tackle all. However, most information regarding the strength of Al Qaeda, which American intelligence indicates has relocated to Africa or the true nature of the "Taliban" is left out of these demands.
It is quite apparent that both USA and India are deliberately provoking Pakistan and finding excuses to justify their intended offensive. India is deliberately putting off recommencement of composite dialogue on flimsy excuses so as to keep the option of war open. In a limited war scenario, India would aim at annexing important salients in Azad Kashmir and some sensitive areas in Punjab and Sindh closer to border. The natural allies would expect the UN Security Council to step in and stop the war at a time entirely favourable to the offender and preventing the defender from taking counter measures in the form of counter offensive or a nuclear strike under the plea that it would result in nuclear holocaust.
Adversaries of Pakistan wishfully hope that capture of spaces by Indian forces would have shattering impact on morale of Pakistan and its economy, would strengthen nationalist and militant forces in Pakistan and would create chaos, helplessness and despair.
There will be none to bailout Pakistan. The US would then come forward under such despairing moments to give a helping hand to the drowning nation and force it to sign on document of surrender and the conditions written therein to repeat the story of Paltan Maidan in December 1971. It will be quietly denuclearised and allowed to live as a vassal state of India. In case Pakistan still shows defiance, next phase of balkanisation of Pakistan will be implemented.
This would be followed by the plunder of Pakistan’s national resources by the same multinational corporations that operated the Bush administration like a hand puppet and appear to be gaining ground with President Obama as well.
The US instead of relying on Pakistan Army to sort out its mess it has created in Afghanistan; it is relying entirely on few tainted leaders and officials in Pakistan and on inept and corrupt Afghan leadership. The CIA rather than working hand-in-glove with ISI to fight and defeat terrorism, it is mistrusting ISI and trusting RAW, Mossad, RAAM and MI-6 and the private mercenary groups in their employ.
US leaders have been so thoroughly brainwashed by self-serving India, Israel and Britain, that their vision have got impaired and their senses lulled. Their behavior is akin to robots and they are being led by their noses towards self-destruction.
Instead of strengthening the hands of Pakistan, which has taken on the frontline duties since September 2001 and put its security at stake, it is being gradually weakened under the false hope of colonizing both Afghanistan and Pakistan economically. This bigoted and immoral program is causing immense pain to Pakistan but is pushing US military deeper and deeper into the quagmire of Afghanistan.
Policies that serve the oil giants and America’s allies, India and Israel, have been a total disaster for the people of the United States, not just in lives lost but in the economic collapse these policies have helped bring about.
Russia and China are militarily and economically too strong, Iran cannot be bent, Afghanistan cannot be conquered, North Korea has nuclear teeth and defiant leadership, India is too big to be gorged, Central Asian States are under the protective wings of two surging communist giants that have become close friends and aligned to North Korea, Iraq is uncontrollable, rich Arab states are devoid of warrior spirit and militarily not in a position to promote US regional interests.
This is the reality of the region, a reality the west ignores.
Pakistan is the only state which is nuclear, has strong and effective armed forces, has reasonable technical base and know-how, but its civilian leadership is corrupt, inept, saleable and compliant to US dictates. This grave deficiency gets nullified to some extent because of independent and assertive judiciary under chief justice Iftikhar, thoroughly well trained, motivated and professional armed forces and resilience of the people of Pakistan having complete faith in God Almighty.
They know that nexus formed by USA-India-Israel-Britain-Afghanistan has woven another 1971 like international conspiracy and is collectively striving to denuclearise and fragment Pakistan. Instead of Pakistanis suffering from paranoia, ironically the evil-doers controlling the west through propaganda are breeding paranoid. This paranoia, based on years of misinformation, disformation and falsehoods will have served no nation, not the US, not even Israel or India.
Disaster and human suffering serves no man in the end.
The writer is a defence and security analyst and a Memeber Board of Advisors, Opinion Maker.
Brig Asif has been a Military Attache to Egypt and written several books.