• Pakistan’s headline inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Mar’15 stood at 2.49% in line with our expectations of 2.5%YoY for the period.
  • However, MoM inflation went up by 0.32% with relatively higher food prices indicated by SPI as compared to previous month.
  • Therefore, average inflation for 9MFY15 has now stands at 5.13% as opposed to 8.81% recorded in the corresponding period last year.
  • Controlled domestic prices of food, vegetables and lower petroleum prices amid significant base year impact of last year are the primary reasons behind the CPI downfall.
  • Going forward, We estimate April’15 forecast would be more surprising for the market participants, where we estimate CPI to clock in at 1.2%YoY for April despite increase in POL prices.
  • We reiterate our CPI forecast for FY15 to settle at 4.3% in line with SBP revised target of 4-5%.