On Monday, 25th Nov, 2013. The market showed volatile movement, with some intraday correction. Yesterday, again market crossed 24,000 points, which has almost eliminated the pressure of this psychological limit. Market just after getting maximum level of +238 points, had later on closed at 23,978 (+131) points, with average volume of 141 million shares.
IMPORTANT NEWS and their IMPACTS ::::::
- The government”s economic reforms and incentive package for the business community may cover tax incentives for specific sectors without having negative impacts on the revenue collection of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) during 2013-14. Sources told Business Recorder here on Sunday that fines and penalties would be waived off for those who would voluntarily come into the tax net and file their income tax returns under the documented regime. (Investors, KSE – Positive)
- The official spot rate was lower by Rs 50Rs to 6,400 per maund (37kg), (Textile – Positive)
- Following the malfunctioning of web-portal of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), the Pakistan Tax Bar Association (PTBA) has demanded to extend the date of e-filing of income tax returns by December 15, 2013. In its letter sent to chairman FBR Tariq Bajwa, PTBA said that filing of income tax returns within extended deadline appears to be impossible, due to severe problems in FBR’s web-portal. It said that nominal number of taxpayers was able to perform their statutory obligations because of these issues. (Tax Bar Association demand an extension in date of filing Income Tax returns.)
- The rupee crossed 109-barrier against the dollar on the currency market during the week ended on November 22. On the open market, as a result of panic buying of dollar, the rupee depreciated by 30 paisa versus the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 108.80 and Rs 109.00 (Economy – Neutral)
- Board of Directors of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) has approved to acquire 10 more aircraft of A319 and A320 family, expected to join PIA fleet from May 2014 onwards. (Corporate News, PIA – Positive, but the deep losses make this minute impact on profitability at present.)
- Asian markets mostly rose Monday following another record close on Wall Street, while oil prices fell after Iran struck a deal on its nuclear programme that will see eased sanctions on the oil producer. (World Economies on a verge of recovery)
- A series of speeches and lectures on “Economic Growth through Kalabagh Dam” in the seminar, jointly organised by the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) and the Sind Tas Water Council here on Saturday, summarised the importance of the project, stressing that it has the potential to bring an end to the load-shedding ordeal and increase industrial output by more than $5 billion a year. (Economy, Energy – Positive. Just don’t be biased, recall, what Musharraf said 7 years ago.)
- Oil prices eased in Asia. In Pakistan (PMEX) it has been trading at $93.82 (-1.04) per barrel till last update. (Crude Oil – Neutral for Drillers, and bit negative for Refineries)
FORECAST FOR TODAY and COMING WEEK:::::
TODAY, on 26th November. Market, need to wait for Prime Minister “incentives for businessmen” announcement. But on the other hand, FBR already has given some relief via amending four budgetary measures. In this scenario, market looks to enjoy above 24,000 level today.
After volatile movement on yesterday, along with breaking 24,000 level twice in 10 days, it initially needs to get some selling activities. As Market is still at good response with Fundamental, Economical, and Technical grounds, would being a reason for some good news in upcoming weeks, along with minor corrections.
As per my analysis, market needs to get initially some slightly Positive movement, but will get some good support later on. The market is expected to be on bullish trend and move between -65 points to +352points. Today, as per Prime Minister Announcement, makes the market to ride on bullish trend.
BYCO, PPL, DOL, FFBL, FFC, LOTCHEM, AHCL, KESC (long term hold, at least till Feb 2014).
DFSM, AMTEX, NIB, TSPL, KOIL, (some rally expected in upcoming weeks. These all are solely my predictions, so consider your dealers too.)
ALI M USMANI