On Thursday, 21st Nov, 2013. The market showed volatile but good movement, which is good for further good stances. Market deemed to have some correction yesterday, after previous few consecutive days of buying, and touching the milestone of 24,000 points. This intraday, but healthy correction still make a room for some good upside moves in upcoming days. Yesterday, market just after getting maximum of +113 points, it then touched -68 points, and later on closed at 23,784 (-16) points, with average volume of 144 million shares.
IMPORTANT NEWS and their IMPACTS ::::::
- The Canadian High Commission is establishing a facilitation desk to woo (seeking favor) Pakistani investors and develop business links between entrepreneurs in both countries. (Economy anticipates to get some collaboration with developed nation – Neutral)
- The State Bank on Wednesday reported that the current account deficit for July-October period rose to $1.366 billion mainly due to poor performance of trade and services sector, against a surplus of $14 million in the corresponding period last year. (Economy – Pressure as reserves depleted, but the payment made to IMF is the plus point.)
- Export of textile and clothing products witnessed a paltry growth of 0.40 per cent to reach $1.114 billion in October this fiscal year (FY14) from a year ago. (Textile Export – Positive, but Pakistan still capable to post four times growth, if government provides basic industrial needs.)
- Microsoft Pakistan on Wednesday announced the availability of Windows 8.1. It is a feature-rich update to its Windows 8 operating system, enabling customers “to create experiences that keep pace with their lives at work, home or on the go” (Corporate News – announcement of new technology in Pakistan)
- Byco Terminals Pakistan Limited is now successfully operating the country’s first and only offshore oil unloading and loading facility. Set up with a foreign investment of $90 million, the Single Point Mooring (SPM) is a floating terminal, 10.5 kilometers out in the Arabian Sea. (Corporate News, BYCO – Positive)
- Cotton Spot rate declined sharply because of easy supply of phutti, dealers said on the cotton market on Tuesday. The official spot rate fell sharp by Rs 100 to Rs 6,450. (Economy, Textile – Positive for Miller, but Gas and Electricity issues abstain this positivity.)
- Pakistan is set to produce record 16.4 million bales of cotton in 2013-14, as a total of 9.51 million bales have so far arrived in the market, which becomes around 58 percent on an average of total arrival until 15th of November 2013. (Economy, Textile – Positive)
- United States Ambassador to Pakistan, Richard Olson on Wednesday said that major American companies had shown a keen interest in the project to import Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and participate in the privatization process of energy sector companies. (Economy, FDIs – Neutral, as in anticipation of new project.)
- Advanced Electronics Company (AEC), a Saudi-based technology solutions provider, will set up a solar energy farms project in different parts of Sindh to help the province overcome the energy crisis. (Economy, Power – Neutral, till there is complete agreement on it.)
- The Pakistan International Airlines Corporation (PIA) has penned a deal that involves it raising $130 million through a Shariah compliant financing facility. The National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) is a major participant in this deal contributing $60 million. (Corporate News, PIA, Economy – Positive, but takes time)
- Oil prices eased in Asia Thursday after talks between Iran and world powers on its disputed nuclear programme opened in Geneva, while signs of rising US demand failed to boost New York’s main contract. In Pakistan (PMEX) it has been trading at $95.42 (+1.68) per barrel till last update. (Crude Oil – Neutral for Drillers, and bit negative for Refineries)
FORECAST FOR TODAY and COMING WEEK:::::
TODAY, on 22nd November. Market after two days of volatile movement, it needs to get some gear up activities. As Market is at good response with Fundamental, Economical, and Technical grounds, except Political scenario, would being a reason for some good news in upcoming weeks, along with minor corrections.
As per my analysis, market needs to get initially some slightly Positive movement, but will get some good support later on. The market is expected to move between -45 points to +325points.
Today’s protest might turn the table, but all in all good sentiment for Market…….
BYCO, PPL, DOL, FFBL, FFC, LOTCHEM, AHCL, KESC (long term hold, at least till Feb 2014).
DFSM, ANL, WTL, NIB, TSPL, KOIL, (some rally expected in upcoming weeks. These all are solely my predictions, so consider your dealers too.)
Ali M Usmani