History Is No Teacher; Instincts Work Better?

By Brig Asif Haroon Raja

Harking back into the history of US security system on which colossal tax payers amount is being spent, not a single case which had an impact on regional security or a case of sabotage planned and executed against US targets was detected and thwarted in time by its intelligence agencies. India succeeded in conducting its nuclear explosion in 1974 secretly; CIA’s assessment about Imam Khomenei’s led Islamic revolution to topple   Shah of Iran was faulty; it had no knowledge about Soviet tanks rolling into Afghanistan in December 1979.

Lockerbie aircraft was successfully blown up in 1982; Aimal Kansi was chased after he shot down several CIA agents in USA in 1992; terrorist attack on FBI building in Oklahoma in 1995 was not detected in time; terrorist attack on US Cole naval craft in Gulf of Aden and attacks on US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, allegedly by al-Qaeda operatives in 1997/98 could not be prevented; 9/11 happened despite having received advance warnings; shoe bomber was accidentally nabbed when he was on board a US plane; Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar went missing from Tora Bora in December 2001 and remain untraceable despite biggest manhunt launched to trace them and other senior Al-Qaeda leaders; US jet kept flying for hours over US cities loaded with nuclear tipped missiles thinking warheads were dummies and intelligence agencies remained blank about it; pent up feelings of Major Nidal resulting in Fort Hood massacre in November 2009 went unnoticed.

US had no idea about the alleged location of Quetta Shura in Balochistan and Al-Qaeda leadership in FATA; it failed to detect alleged cross border infiltration across Durand Line about which it made so much noise. It could not pinpoint even one sanctuary or training ground of terrorists in FATA; Nigerian national Umar Farooq having links with Al-Qaeda and carrying explosive sewn into his underwear was also fortuitously caught on 25 December 2009 aboard a US plane over Detroit; Faisal Shahzad was nabbed two days after he had planted the bomb at Times Square on 01 May 2010. The Agencies could not detect or thwart any suicide or terrorist attack by Taliban against coalition troops or installations in Kabul and other major cities. CIA and FBI have not been able to trace the exact locations and numbers of nukes in Pakistan. Likewise, they are not sure whether Iran has already developed a nuclear bomb or how far away it is from acquiring this capability. These and several other failures prove the point that efficiency of US intelligence agencies is far from satisfactory.

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What the American agencies are good at is to create myths, indulge in falsehood and deceit, feed half-truths and lies to color perceptions, dramatize terror attacks and their follow up actions after the commissioning of the acts, support fissiparous forces in target countries and create private armies like Blackwater, indulge in narcotic trade, instigate colored revolutions, topple defiant regimes, carryout political assassinations, employ pilot-less drones and other rogue activities like dumping blue-eyed boys. Manuel Noriega is a case in point; he had served CIA’s interests for long but in the end he was discarded.

The most glaring example of the US indulging in blatant falsehood is the story it weaved about WMDs in Iraq and made it into a pretext to invade the country. To cover up their intelligence failures or military failures, the Americans are adept in putting the blame on others. Pakistan has been the biggest victim of blame game. The US finds it a convenient scapegoat to lump all its failures on Pakistan since subservient Pakistani leaders accept the charges and insults without a whimper.

Strongly believing in the concept of deceit and falsehood, the US has befriended Israel and India which are also believers of similar philosophy. Rather, the duo is a step ahead and has mastered the art of manufacturing false stories to hide its own sins and put the blame of its sins on others. The trio has monopoly over media through which it converts white into black and vice versa and gets away with it. hpw Indo-US-Israeli-UK media has been relentlessly trying to paint Pakistan and its premier institutions black. Every now and then, a new story makes headlines, each one spicier and funnier than the previous.

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In addition to its perpetual weakness in the field of strategic intelligence gathering, the Americans are also bad students of history and are amateurish in selecting friends or ruling regimes. That is why they never learn from history or give due weight to the track record of a country while forming an alliance for the fulfillment of certain objectives. The only thing in which the US elites are adept and uncompromising is the protection of their mercantile interests. Once they make up their minds to steal someone else’s resources, they go to any lengths, disregarding ethics, morals and principles.

In Afghanistan, they have relied on counsels of Britain, Israel and India, carrying heavy baggage of intrigues and conspiracies. In Iraq, Israel and Britain are their chief counselors. The US has stuck to these notorious countries well knowing that their motives are self centred and malevolent. While a change has come in Britain where over 63% people want an end to futile war on terror, India and Israel want continuation of war on terror since it suits the two in all respects. They are milking USA without sacrificing a single soldier.

To make their military ventures successful, the Americans instead of opting for popular and honest leaders, installed corrupt and inept puppet regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq led by Karzai and Maliki respectively. In Iraq, Ahmad Chalabi became their key man who was the chief instigator and had assured that Iraqis would garland American troops. He later on stabbed them in the back. USA also banked upon a military dictator in Pakistan who blindly served American interests. When he couldn’t help in tiding over terrorism, they installed a so-called democratic government of their choice totally at the mercy of Washington. None has been able to win the confidence of their people since anti-Americanism in the three affected countries is on the peak. It has made the endgame of USA that much complicated.

The wars in the two far apart theatres spun out of control because of faulty inputs by India and Israel and their underhand dirty tricks. Instead of concentrating on primary task, India with the help of CIA deflected the attention of US military towards its chief rival Pakistan, nominated as a frontline ally. Israel managed to make Iran a target for subversive activities. These deflections proved fatal since instead of fighting a guerrilla war against Al-Qaeda and Taliban, the US diverted greater resources towards covert operations against Pakistan and Iran.

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When the security situation in Iraq and Afghanistan became grave, the US decided to hand over bulk of internal security duties as well as other shady activities to Blackwater, and made combat soldiers bunker based to avoid casualties. Today the US is finding itself in hot soup not knowing how to proceed further. Having taken the decision to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, US leadership is unsure how to wrap up with honor and ensure security of nearly 150000 coalition troops stuck in Afghanistan. Weakening US economy can no longer sustain war on terror. The two advisers are pressing US military not to relent and to stay put till the attainment of all objectives. They are fully exploiting simmering tensions between civil and military in USA.

Washington has belatedly realized that its complete dependence on India and Israel was one of the major causes of repeated failures and has slowly begun to veer towards Pakistan. It is however still moving forward cautiously since cobwebs of suspicion will take time to clear. This skepticism is due to high dosage of ear poison it has been receiving from the duo all these years. Obama should act fast and get rid of perverted influence of India and Israel to save USA from Vietnam like humiliation.

Brig Asif Haroon Raja is a Member Board of Advisors, Opinion Maker. He has been a Directing Staff at Command and Staff College Quetta. He is Msc War studies, has been Defence Attache to Egypt and Sudan. Brig Asif has written several books on security and geo-politics.